Determinants of Indian Foreign Policy

Those factors that influence and determine the foreign policy of a country are its determinants. Some of these factors are static in nature whereas others are in a state of flux and their dynamics are continually adjusted to the changing circumstances.

 External Determinants

1.  Power Structure

The relations that nations establish among themselves are backed by their respective national interests and powers. In fact, such relations involve struggle for power among them. The net effect is that international relations constitute a power structure in which the more powerful nations—the super powers and the major powers—play a more vigorous and leading role than the relatively less powerful nations.

The emergence of the U.S.A. and the U.S.S.R. as the two super powers with cold war in between them, made it imperative for the newly independent states like India, to adopt a policy of keeping away from the cold war and yet attempt to have friendly co-operation with both the super powers.

2. International Organizations

International institutions such as United Nations are instruments of states’ foreign policies, and the political, military, functional, economic and humanitarian has a role to play. These international organizations to varying degrees serve as modifiers of state behaviour and as independent actors in their own right. They have profound impact on the determination of the foreign policy of a state. No state can decide and conduct its policy arbitrarily to the detriment of other states. UN and other multilateral forums come to the rescue of the aggressed state. Usually sanctions are imposed which in some cases become very effective provided the international community imposes them sincerely.

3. Reaction of other states

Being sensible to the sensibilities of other states, no state can adopt a unilateral policy. It has to take into account, and accommodate, if possible, the interests of the other stake-holders as well.

4. World Public Opinion

The state, while formulating its foreign policy has to take into account the world public opinion. World public opinion is more effective when it is supported by the domestic public opinion of the given state. Power is not about military hardware or nukes and ammunitions; its equally important component is a state’s prestige known as ‘soft power’ . It is well known that the US administration was made to effect changes in its Vietnam policy largely due to hostile world public opinion. 

The real strength behind the objectives of Disarmament, Arms Control and Nuclear Disarmament, Anti- colonialism, Anti-apartheid policies of various nations, has been the World Public Opinion.

5. Alliances and Treaties (Bilateral and Multilateral):

The extensive and intensive system of alliances that emerged in the Post-1945 period had a big impact on the foreign policies of all the nations. During 1945-90 both the United States and the USSR, recognized and used alliances as the means for consolidating their respective positions.

Their foreign policies, as well as the foreign policies of their allies were always governed by the goal to secure new partners in their respective alliances and to maintain and consolidate the alliance partnerships. Even now, after the demise of Warsaw Pact, the U.S.A. continues to consider NATO(The North Atlantic Treaty Organization ) as the mainstay of its foreign policy in Europe.

NATO’s support to the US decision to declare a war against Taliban’s Afghanistan decidedly gave strength to the US foreign policy. However, many other nations, the Non-aligned nations, still continue to regard alliances as a source of tension and distrust and their foreign policies are still governed by the anti-alliance principle.

Recently, another factor has become an influential factor in Foreign Policy- making. The realization for mutual inter-dependence has given birth to a large number of regional organisations, arrangements, agreements and trading blocs. European Union, ASEAN, SAARC(South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), NAFTA (The North American Free Trade Agreement ), APEC(Asia Pacific economic

Cooperation), SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and several others have been major players in international economic relations.

6. Economic Developmental Needs

Pakistan and India are bargaining with Iran for the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline and with Turkmenistan for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project. Besides a proposal for exporting gas from Qatar is also under consideration. India has received a big boost in this regard with the coming into force fo the US-India deal on the peaceful nuclear technology. This has virtually legitimized Indian nuclear programme much to the chagrin of Pakistan which has since been strenuously lobbying for getting the same status.

INTERNAL DETERMINANTS

1. Historical and Cultural Influence

     The cultural and historical traditions of a country also deeply influence the foreign policy. Generally people possessing a unified common culture and historical experience can pursue an effective foreign policy because of the support of all sections of society who share the same values and memories. Equally important are the processes through which the contents of Shared norms and practices of society, as distinguished from the degree of unity that supports them shape the plans that are made and the activities that are undertaken with respect to the external world.

         India’s apprehensions of China and Pakistan are the product of their historical traditions. India and China have to some extent shelved their historical mistrust in order to pave ground for their mutual trade. It is believed by the Complex Interdependence theorists that in the present age of interdependence, it is highly improbable that the two countries would go to war.

2. Size and Geography

The size of a state's territory as well as it’s population greatly influences its foreign policy. Generally the leaders and people of countries with small territory and population do not expect their country to carry great weight in international affairs. On the other hand the leaders and people of large countries are ready to assume special responsibilities. Size has been a factor in the foreign policies of the U.S.A., Russia, China, India, Brazil, France and others.
However, sometimes even small states which have rich resources also leave a deep impact on world politics. For example, Britain, a small country, played leading role in world politics in the nineteenth and early twentieth century. In our own times the oil-rich countries of the Middle East, though small in size are playing a significant role in international politics.
On the other hand large states like Canada and Australia have not been able to pursue effective foreign policy. Commonwealth of Independent states (CIS) which came into existence after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, though quite large in size, is not able to play an effective role in contemporary international relations.
The geography of a country, including its fertility, climate, location in relation to their land masses, and water-ways etc. also influence the country's foreign policy. It is a major factor in determining self-sufficiency of a country.

The role played by English Channel in the development of Britain as a major naval power and consequently as an imperial power is well known. The influence of the Atlantic Ocean on the US Foreign Policy has been always there. Indian Foreign Policy now definitely bears the influence of the geographical location of India as the largest littoral state of the Indian Ocean.


3. Population

The strength of a nation depends upon the quality and quantity of its human factor. The enormous population of China enabled it to pursue a forceful foreign policy. On the other hand the falling birth rate in France compelled her to toe a weak foreign policy during the inter-war period. Qualitatively, the population should be healthy, educated and prosperous. It should also possess technical know-how. 

If the resources of a country are not sufficient to meet the requirements of the large population, the latter may pose a serious challenge to the very existence of the state. But if there are sufficient resources to meet the requirements of a large population, then it certainly adds to the power of the state. Instances from USA and the defunct Soviet Union’s history can be quoted to substantiate this point.

4. Natural Resources

The natural resources of a country also profoundly influence the determination of a foreign policy. The natural resources apart from minerals, gas and water resources also include the food grain. During the present century, food has tended to be an important factor in the determination of a country’s foreign policy. It is said that during the Second World War the foreign and military policy of Germany was to a large extent, determined by her limited food reserves. She resorted to massive action because she was to win a quick victory in view of the danger of starvation faced by the German army. In the post World War II, Oil diplomacy in the Middle East has greatly determined foreign policy not only of the states of the region, but also of the entire world. The attitude of the super powers during the cold war, towards the region of the Middle East in particular, was to a large extent, dictated by their desire to control the oil.
We can say that the natural resources and raw material exercise considerable influence upon the foreign policy of a country. In the absence of a sound industrial complex, they can make a state vulnerable to foreign intervention, but with their domestic consumption and indigenous input, they can be a real boon for any country. In such a case, the state would pursue its foreign policy more confidently and assertively.

5. Economic and Industrial Development

The stage of economic development which a country has attained also has its impact on its foreign policy. Generally the industrially advanced countries feel more deeply involved in relations with other countries because they have to import different kinds of raw materials and commodities from other countries.. Again, an industrial country is expected to have a higher gross national product (GNP) and can devote greater funds for external purpose, economic aid programme, military ventures and extensive diplomatic commitments.

The global perspectives and policies of the two super-powers (1945-90) were again governed by their vast economic and industrial resources and their needs for foreign markets and trade. In fact, all economically and industrially developed nations (Group of seven plus one, countries in particular) are now playing a more a vigorous role in international relations than the lowly developed and developing countries.

This is but natural in view of fact that economically developed countries possess greater military capability than the less developed countries, and can exert greater influence on international relations. In our own times the decline of Russia's economic power has considerably undermined her political role in the international arena.

6. Military Power

The military strength of a country also determines the effectiveness of its foreign policy. A state possessing sufficient military strength has greater initiative and bargaining power in the international arena. The case of Israel can be quoted as an example. She continues her precarious existence despite the combined opposition of the Allied nations; she has power to maintain an assertive foreign policy. Unlike geographical and natural resources, the military capacity is not a static factor. It keeps on changing. The states try to impress about their military superiority in a number of ways, such as nuclear tests, mobilization of army, periodical display of military forces, devices and techniques.
Military strength of a country is closely linked to its resourcefulness and the development of its industry. A developed civil industry can be made to manufacture military hardware during the time of wars and crises.

7. National Capacity

 The national capacity of a state also exercises profound influence on the foreign policy of a state. National capacity of a state depends on its military preparedness, it’s technological advancement and economic development. It is well known that United States which continued to pursue policy of isolation till the beginning of the present century got deeply involved in the international arena in the present century mainly due to tremendous increase in her national capacity due to rapid economic development. Similarly, the foreign policy of Britain underwent great transformation in the post World War II period, mainly due to decline in her national capacity.

8. Social Structure

The social structure of a society also exercises profound influence on its foreign policy. A society which is sharply divided on the basis of wealth, religion, regional imbalances, etc. cannot pursue effective foreign policy on account of division and lack of co-operation among various groups. It is well known that Britain stood as one person under the leadership of Churchill during the Second World War and the people gladly suffered all kinds of hardships to preserve their unity because of social solidarity.

8. Public Opinion

Public mood is another important determinant of a country's foreign policy. Though public mood usually follows rather than guides the foreign policy making process, it can exercise lot of influence on the determination of a foreign policy if the basic realignment in the prevailing great power structure takes place and the state becomes more involved or more isolated from the world affairs. It may be noted that generally in an authoritarian system the public mood does not influence the foreign policy, but in a democratic system based on political accountability considerable weight has to be accorded to the changing public mood and sentiments.
The American Senate’s refusal to ratify the American membership of the League of Nations, and the opposition of Vietnam War by the Americans and other peoples, had a big impact on the Foreign Policy of the U.S.A.

9. Political System

Generally under authoritarian system quick foreign policy decisions are possible because the decision making power rests with an individual assisted by his clique
On the other hand in a country possessing a democratic structure the citizens can freely express their opinion on the domestic as well as foreign policy which naturally leave its impact on the foreign policy of the country.

10. Role of Press

The press contributes to this process by supplying factual information on the basis of which the people take decision by publishing specialized articles on current international developments. The press also plays an important role in publicizing the foreign policy of the country. The role of the press, however, depends on the political system prevailing in the country, the rate of literacy as well as the attitude of government.

11. Internal Situation:

Like the external situational factors, sudden changes, disturbances or disorders that occur within the internal environment of a nation also influence the nature and course of foreign policy.

The internal opposition to the military regime in Pakistan during 1947-89 was a determinant of Pakistani foreign policy. Similarly, the declaration of emergency in India in 1975 did materially affect the relations of India with other countries particularly the super powers. A change of government is always a source of change in the foreign policy of a state.

12. Personalities of Leaders:

Since the Foreign Policy of a nation is made and implemented by leaders, statesmen and diplomats, naturally it bears an imprint of their values, talents, experiences and personalities. The ideas, orientations, likings, disliking, attitudes, knowledge, skill and the world-view of the national decision-makers are influential inputs of Foreign Policy. The differences among the leaders are also influential inputs of a foreign policy.

The differences between the Foreign Policy decisions of various U.S. Presidents have been due to the differences in their attitudes and personalities. The Indian Foreign Policy till 1964 was often, and rightly so, described as Nehru’s Foreign Policy. The support at home and the popularity that PM Nehru enjoyed acted as imputes of foreign policy.
However, leaders are always guided by the dictates and demands of national interest. Each leader is committed to the securing of national interests of the nation. The vital interests of the nations are a source of continuity if the personalities and attitudes of the leaders are a source of change. The two have to be balanced before these serve as foreign policy inputs.

Conclusion
It is clear from the above discussion that foreign policy of a country is determined by a number of factors. As most of these factors are of changing nature, so with their evolution or transformation, foreign policies of countries also keep on changing. In addition to these factors, certain developments at the international level such as development of thermo-nuclear technology, onset of cold war and military alliances, elimination of colonialism have exercised profound influence on the foreign policies of different countries. The creation of United Nations has also left a mark on the foreign policies of different countries. The end of cold war influenced the states in every region of the world to modify their foreign policies in according with the changing dynamics of the world. Post 9/11 has a similar effect on the states.

Source: Ajit kumar, IAS